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In Q3, 11.5 million WP devices and 9.7 million Lumias may have been sold (On basis of Adduplex stats)!!

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September stats:

clip_image004_thumbJune Stats:

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On popular demand, we try to predict what Windows Phone volume could have been sold in Q3. This calculation is based on Adduplex stats. Assuming 25 + 7 = 32 million active Windows Phones till the end of Q2, we see that WP8 has grown further by 10% in Q3 from 61% in June to 71% in September.

Let us assume conservatively that only 0.8 million WP7 devices were sold in Q2. Then considering 40% and 45% skew in Adduplex data in start and end of Q3, we will have ((32*0.39*1.4)+0.8) / (0.29*1.45) = 43.5 million devices at end of Q3.

Hence WP devices sold in Q3 = 43.5-32 =11.5 million devices. Nokia may have sold 11.5 * 0.85 = 9.7 million Lumia devices.

Disclaimer: This calculation is based on “Adduplex stats” and may vary from actual installed base figures as the apps usage by newer devices is always higher as compared to older devices. Though we use coefficients to correct the skew, but still this calculation is for academic interest only!!

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Nayan

Nayan has more than 10 years of experience of covering Technology and innovations. He is a big Nokia fan and Tech disruptions aficionado. He loves to review new cool gadgets and writing about Android, iOS, Gadgets and general Technology stuff. He has been associated with other well-known Tech sites WinCentral and GadgetOx since long.

He currently sports a Lumia 950 XL and Nexus 5X. Other interests include listening to Nu-Metal Hits and Kick-Boxing.
Write to him at Email: [email protected]

http://www.nokiapoweruser.com
  • kyothar

    Every time you’ve done these predictions using Adduplex data, you alway end up way too high. Why not do a follow-up to see how close/far off your predictions were in the past. Then you could put a modifier into your equation that would make it, potentially, more accurate.

    • Kamal

      Last quarter I predicted 8.6 million and actual Lumia sales was 7.4. So, yes you can use a modifier of around 87%, if you wish 🙂

      • kyothar

        Ok, so that means we should look for 8.44M Lumias sold in Q3.

        Let’s wait and see what the actual numbers are. Seems like a reasonable amount to me based on the success of the 520/521.

        Results are released on October 29.

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