So, it is prediction time again!! Adduplex data for full quarter is out and let us try to find out what it hints about WP shipments in Q2.
So, first the necessary basic assumptions/data.
- 30% skew in Adduplex data towards WP8 devices, which may have grown to 40% with more and more WP8 devices selling as compared to WP7 devices by end of June.
- Now, assuming 3.5 million sold WP devices are not in active use now, total no. of active WP devices till Q1 2013 is about 25 million.
- Also, the recent stats is from 10th July and March stats is from 4th April. So, we need to offset one week. Hence we will take WP7 stats as 40.5% and WP8 stats as 59.5% based on change of nearly 8% from May to June.
- Let us assume conservatively that only 1.5 million WP7 devices were sold in Q2. If you remember in Q1, 5.5/3= 1.8 million WP7 Lumias were sold. Hence our assumption of 1.5 million overall WP7 devices is quite valid.
Assuming only (conservative) 1.5 million WP7 devices were sold in three months of Q2, then no. of devices by end of June = =((25*0.57*1.3)+1.5)/(0.405*1.4) = 35.3 million WP devices
Hence total WP devices sold in Q2 come about 35.3 – 25 = 10.3 million devices.
Now, as Nokia sells about 84% of all WP devices, Lumia shipments should be 8.6 million for Q2.
Lumia 520 may have sold around = 35.3*13.3*0.6 = 2.8 million in Q2.