Now coming to most controversial part of our report based on Adduplex data. Yes, predicting the sales of WP devices. So, first the necessary basic data.
- 30% skew in Adduplex data towards WP8 devices.
- Now, assuming 3.5 million sold WP devices are not in active use now, total no. of active WP devices till Q1 2013 is about 25 million.
Considering Adduplex’s latest data for the Month of May, we can see following devices posting % points increase in market share over Q1 (March),
Lumia 520- 8.4
Lumia 720- 3.7
Lumia 620- 2.4
Now, for calculating how many of above devices have been sold in two months after March, we will take a conservative estimate of just 4 million devices sold in April and May for calculation sake.
Hence 25+4 = 29 million devices at end of May. Hence total volume of Lumia 520, 620 and 720 sold in these two months = 3 million devices.
Also we can see WP8 share growing from 43% to 53% from end of March to end of May and WP7 share went down from 57% to 47%. We have taken 25 million device by end of March.
Assuming only (Very conservative) 0.5 million WP7 devices were sold in two months of April and May, then no. of devices by end of May = ((25*0.57)+0.5)/0.47 = 31.5 million
Hence devices sold in April and May come about 31.5 – 25 = 6.5 million devices.
But as we know Lumia WP7 devices sold in Q1 were 1/3 of the total Lumia sales, around 1.8 million. Hence if we even take 1 million WP7 device sales (Still conservative) in April and May, total WP devices sales by end of May becomes = 32.4 million giving sales of 7.4 million in April and May, which is more accurate according to us.
And not surprisingly only Lumia 520, 620 and 720 may have sold nearly 3.5 million devices between them.