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Why Samsung’s dream is wishful thinking!!

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Samsung’s chief executive, Choi Gee-sung, yesterday told in an interview with Reuters,that he believes his company’s total handset shipments this year will be higher than those of Nokia’s. So let us analyze a bit about the whole Nokia-Samsung scenario,and try to see whether the CEO’s claim has got some ground reality.

Nokia’s shipments in 2011:

Q1 108.5 millions
Q2 88.5 millions
Q3 106.6 millions
Q4(Predicted) 117 millions

Total 2011 shipments                                                                    420.6 millions

With introduction of Symbian belle in Q3, smartphone sales already stabilised in Q3 and Q4 is going to show growth with N9,Lumia and symbian belle devices sales.Also dual sim phones helped in making mobile phone sales spring back heavily in Q3.This trend only gets better with introduction of Asha range( 1 Ghz) of devices.Please read about prediction of Q4 sales in my earler post,

http://nokiapoweruser.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/swot-analysis-and-q4-prediction117-million-shipments-for-nokia/

Now Samsung according to their best estimates wil sell 325 million devices this year,quite a huge gap.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-57355883-17/samsung-well-beat-nokia-in-handset-shipments-this-year/

Also according to best estimates for Samsung sales in 2012 vary from 359 million to 374 million.

http://www.slashgear.com/samsung-to-overtake-nokia-in-2012-mobile-phone-shipments-10208350/

So now question comes what will define Nokia sales in 2012.Let us consider following factors,

  • Volume comes from emerging markets,where Nokia has consolidated its position this year viz ( India,China,South Africa)
  • Smartphone sales will only go up with introduction of Lumia series,Symbian belle update in Feb and more devices being available with Symban belle.
  • Asha range has been introduced,and is getting amazing reviews,

http://nokiapoweruser.wordpress.com/2012/01/05/asha-303-review-by-gsmarena/

All this indicate better sales in both categories for Nokia in 2012.So even if Nokia sales increase by 10 % in 2012,It will be more than 420+42=462 million devices.

Now with all the growth Samsung is seeing, it has still to challange Nokia in emerging markets,from where the volume comes.

As seen in the link posted from slashgear,”Garnter analyst Carolina Milanesi explains that Nokia is still strong in emerging markets and that’s where analysts are expecting to see the most growth in 2012. Hence, it would be difficult for Samsung to beat Nokia without focusing more on this market.”

So even if Samsung posts 20% growth,which is very very ambitious,its 2012 sales is 320+64=384 million shipments.

In the end, 462 millions sales fo Nokia(Considering only 10% growth) VS 384 million sales for Samsung(Considering 20% growth).

Samsung needs to wait for another year may be 🙂 .Best of luck for 2013 then.

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Nayan

Nayan has more than 10 years of experience of covering Technology and innovations. He is a big Nokia fan and Tech disruptions aficionado. He loves to review new cool gadgets and writing about Android, iOS, Gadgets and general Technology stuff. He has been associated with other well-known Tech sites WinCentral and GadgetOx since long.

He currently sports a Lumia 950 XL and Nexus 5X. Other interests include listening to Nu-Metal Hits and Kick-Boxing.
Write to him at Email: [email protected]

http://www.nokiapoweruser.com
  • ashok pai

    The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Nokia OR Samsung can go wrong. the going is strong with Samsung, not so much with Nokia which has been making a number of mistakes for 3 years in a row, that will catch up sooner than later.

    • @Ashok,Nokia’s mistakes already costed them dearly.But now symbian belle,dual sim phones,N9,Lumia and their success augur better future for Nokia.Nokia learnt a lot from its mistakes,it seems.Coming to Samsung,they are going to feel the heat with what was on display in CES.Sony’s android phones are certainly going to cut sammy’s android share.Also according to technology life cycle,android’s pinncale is now.so it will take a downward slope from this year or next year.Windows phone is entering growth phase.so obviously odds are in favour of Nokia now going forward.

      Also if you note i have given only 10% growth to Nokia (Slightly pessimistic),and 20% to Samsung(higly optimistic scenario) in 2012.so whatever way Nokia will be the leader in shipments.

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