Nokia Q1 2013 predictions based on Adduplex data for April 2013. Lumia 920 top sold WP device.

Adduplex data for April 2013 is out and it gives us again very interesting insights into trends of Windows Phone world dominated by Nokia. Above is the data chart from January 2013. From then there have been many changes till April 2013 chart shown below. WP8 Lumia devices have increased their market share significantly and now account for 43% WP devices in the market.

Lumia 920 is now the top sold Lumia out there replacing Lumia 800. During Q1 2013, Lumia 920 has gained by 5% points, while Lumia 620 has now 7% share based on the sales in only Q1 2013. Even Lumia 820 has gained 5% points. Lumia 822 which demos the potential of having a high-end Lumia at Verizon, now has 3% market share which is amazing considering availability at single carrier in one market!!

Disclaimer: So, can we predict something out of this data comparison? We will try doing that one more time, though accuracy still is in question as Adduplex data may not be the correct representation of WP market share.

Now, let us start with 21 million Windows Phone devices at the end of Q4 2012. Let us consider, no devices have been sold in Q1 2013, so in that case growth in WP8 devices in Q1 2013 ,according to the above two charts.

21* (7+5+5+3)/100= 4.2 million WP8 devices.

So, minimum Lumia devices sold by Nokia should be (4.2+1)= 5.2 million in Q1 and then overall WP devices sold can be assumed to be 7 million.

Now, if we try to fit what volume in Q1 2013 for Nokia and Total WP devices will fit the % shown in April statistics, then it seems it should be close to 10 million overall WP sales in Q1 2013. Out of this nearly 8 million will belong to Nokia with WP8 devices taking Lion’s share at 7 out of 8 million Lumia devices sold.

Prediction is fun and its correctness is totally dependent on the basis of prediction. Above prediction is dependent on Adduplex data and we are looking forward to Nokia announcing actual results of Q1 2013, so that we can further understand whether to use this statistics for any prediction in future.

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