Samsung’s chief executive, Choi Gee-sung, yesterday told in an interview with Reuters,that he believes his company’s total handset shipments this year will be higher than those of Nokia’s. So let us analyze a bit about the whole Nokia-Samsung scenario,and try to see whether the CEO’s claim has got some ground reality.
Nokia’s shipments in 2011:
| Q1 | 108.5 millions |
| Q2 | 88.5 millions |
| Q3 | 106.6 millions |
| Q4(Predicted) | 117 millions |
Total 2011 shipments 420.6 millions
With introduction of Symbian belle in Q3, smartphone sales already stabilised in Q3 and Q4 is going to show growth with N9,Lumia and symbian belle devices sales.Also dual sim phones helped in making mobile phone sales spring back heavily in Q3.This trend only gets better with introduction of Asha range( 1 Ghz) of devices.Please read about prediction of Q4 sales in my earler post,
Now Samsung according to their best estimates wil sell 325 million devices this year,quite a huge gap.
Also according to best estimates for Samsung sales in 2012 vary from 359 million to 374 million.
http://www.slashgear.com/samsung-to-overtake-nokia-in-2012-mobile-phone-shipments-10208350/
So now question comes what will define Nokia sales in 2012.Let us consider following factors,
- Volume comes from emerging markets,where Nokia has consolidated its position this year viz ( India,China,South Africa)
- Smartphone sales will only go up with introduction of Lumia series,Symbian belle update in Feb and more devices being available with Symban belle.
- Asha range has been introduced,and is getting amazing reviews,
http://nokiapoweruser.wordpress.com/2012/01/05/asha-303-review-by-gsmarena/
All this indicate better sales in both categories for Nokia in 2012.So even if Nokia sales increase by 10 % in 2012,It will be more than 420+42=462 million devices.
Now with all the growth Samsung is seeing, it has still to challange Nokia in emerging markets,from where the volume comes.
As seen in the link posted from slashgear,”Garnter analyst Carolina Milanesi explains that Nokia is still strong in emerging markets and that’s where analysts are expecting to see the most growth in 2012. Hence, it would be difficult for Samsung to beat Nokia without focusing more on this market.”
So even if Samsung posts 20% growth,which is very very ambitious,its 2012 sales is 320+64=384 million shipments.
In the end, 462 millions sales fo Nokia(Considering only 10% growth) VS 384 million sales for Samsung(Considering 20% growth).
Samsung needs to wait for another year may be 🙂 .Best of luck for 2013 then.
