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3.7 million WP devices may have been sold in July. Lumia 520 may have accounted for 2 million of it.

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So Adduplex data is out and here we again try to predict Windows Phone volumes based on Adduplex data for the month of July. Keep in mind this data may be skewed towards newer devices as it is based on application usage, but with help of a factor to remove the skew we reached close to actual volume for last quarter.

June:

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July:

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first the necessary basic assumptions/data.

  • Assuming 3.5 million sold WP devices are not in active use now, total no. of active WP devices till Q1 2013 is about 25 million. WP devices sold in Q2 are close to 8.5 million or more but we will take a figure of 8 million for Q2 here. Hence no. of WP devices in the market by end of June = 33 million. Assuming 1 million devices again become inactive during this period, it gives us a figure of 32 million active devices.

Now, from June to July the WP8 devices share has grown from 61% to 65% and assuming just 0.4 million WP7 device sold in July, we can calculate total WP devices by end of July,

=((39*32)+0.4)/35 = 36.8 million WP devices which gives us a 4.8 million device sold in July.

While assuming no WP7 sales during July takes us to total 35.7 million WP devices by end of July, giving 3.7 million devices sold in July.

In case you are wondering how many Lumia 520 were sold in July,

=((35.7*18)-(32*13.3))/100= 2 million approximately.

In case we consider a 30% skew towards WP8 devices in Adduplex data on average, Lumia 520 sold becomes = 2*0.7 = 1.4 million.

Lumia 520’s dominance is not surprising considering the fact that Nokia has for the first time succeeded in keeping supplies consistent for this hot seller device in many markets.

Source

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Nayan

Nayan has more than 10 years of experience of covering Technology and innovations. He is a big Nokia fan and Tech disruptions aficionado. He loves to review new cool gadgets and writing about Android, iOS, Gadgets and general Technology stuff. He has been associated with other well-known Tech sites WinCentral and GadgetOx since long.

He currently sports a Lumia 950 XL and Nexus 5X. Other interests include listening to Nu-Metal Hits and Kick-Boxing.
Write to him at Email: [email protected]

http://www.nokiapoweruser.com
  • jeb

    I also have problems with the windows phone market total. I believe there to be aRound 20,000,000 million active windows phones. In my forecasing it looks like windows 7 had a very bad june to july month but their top phones did well from July to August (550,000 new sales). They must have really put them on heavy discount.

  • Kamal Mishra

    True. Stars may be aligning for a 10M quarter…..

  • Kamal Mishra

    Oh!! But Chandan is also a regular to our blog :). So, good work there :D.

  • Asgardi

    Well one thing we can agree is that Nokia NEEDS to break the magical 10M this quarter and 15M next quarter (because of it is Christmas quarter…)

  • Trappist

    What makes you think 400.000 WP 7 devices have been sold in July instead of, say, 40.000? That sounds a pretty bold prediction, to say the least!

    • Kamal Mishra

      Nokia mentioned in Q1, 1/3 of 5.4 million Lumia sales came from WP7. So, even assuming now in July only 10-15% sales come from WP7, you can end up with more than 0.4 million.

      • roblem

        But you have to consider as well the number of deactivated devices in July!

  • Something is not right here. Would mean WP8 phones at end of June = 61% of 32m = 19.5m phones,

    But add up Nokia 1q13 and 2q13 and you have 13m, half of which were likely Wp7.

    Who sold these 19.5m Wp8 phones?

    • Kamal Mishra

      That’s why we use a skew of 30-40% for correcting it. But anyways Q4 2012, Q1 2013 and Q2 2013 gives you a Lumia WP8 sale estimate of 2.8+3.8+5.4 = 12 million.

      • roblem

        1Q13 Nokia sold approx. 3,4 mill. WP8 devices instead of 3,8 mill. as you report.

      • roblem

        Sorry but your comment makes no sense. Why don’t you use the number of WP8 devices sold by Nokia to make your calculations? 11,6 mill. * 100/85,4 marketshare= 13,6 mill. WP 8 devices in June. If no WP7 devices were sold in July (or if the sold devices were compensated by the number of deactivated WP7 devices), then 13,6*39/61=8,7mill. WP7 devices in July and the number of WP8 would be 8,7*65/35=16,15 mill. Thus, the total number of sold WP would be 2,55 mill. or 16,15*18/100 – 13,6*13,3/100=1,1 mill. Lumia 520.

        • roblem

          My calculations only apply in the case of no WP7 sold in July!

        • roblem

          The operation for the Lumia 520 is incorrect, the valid result is 1,5 mill.

  • Tellus

    Correct me if i am wrong.

    39% (WP7) of 32 million wp is 0.39 x 32 000 000 = 12.48 million wp7 devices.

    now add 0.4 million sold wp7 in july to this number and we will get 12.88 million wp7.

    wp devices will than be 12.88/0.35 = 36.8 million devices. Thats a gain of 4.8 million wp.

    I Think the decimals get wrong with 0.4 million wp7 when you dont conver the procents to correct decimals. Am i right?

    Nokia have 87% of WP.
    0.87 x 4.8 million = 4.17 million Lumia sold in July.

    • Kamal Mishra

      3.7 million is the minimum and we will use that figure as we always try to take conservative estimate. Thanks for pointing out :). I have now mentioned both scenarios.

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