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Smartphone ASP rose to $240 in Q4 from $204 last quarter, hinting good Lumia 920 traction.Revisiting our Q4 prediction!!



Nokia has sold 4.4 million Lumia smartphones in Q4 and Nokia said yesterday that they have achieved “profitability” in Devices. One major highlight here is that, the ASP of smartphones has risen to $240 from $204 last quarter. This is only possible when Lumia 920 has got good traction, as we have a mix of low price Lumia WP7.5 smartphones and cheaper Symbian devices like 500, 603 and C5 in the smartphone mix. Due to this high ASP, this quarter, smart devices brought in close to $1.6 billion.

Ok, now time to do revisit 😛 our own prediction for Q4. If you remember initially I started with about 8 million WP smartphone sales in Q4, but later some of you pointed out some other sites claiming 10 million predictions. So, it was a fan vs Analyst conflict and the Nokia fan in me won and I used 9.5 million WP smartphone sales in Q4 for calculations ;).

One more thing is that it seems, “Adduplex” covers only WP7.5 and WP8 data, hence we should have taken into account sales from Q4 2011 onwards, when Nokia launched first WP7.5 device Lumia 800. So, in case 4.4 million is figure for only Lumia shipments in Q4, then may be we can safely assume 6.0 million overall WP 7.5+8 sales in Q4.

2.75+3.3+5.4+3.6+6= 21.5 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices considering Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 figures.

Then it looks like Lumia 920 sales in Q4 will be 21.5*.09 = 1.9 million, which to us is really safe prediction and explains the high ASP of $240 achieved by Nokia for smartphones.

Further Lumia 820 = 0.64 million and Lumia 822 , 810 = 0.36, 0.10 million adds up to give a figure of 1.1 million sales.

Hence, it seems out of 4.4 million Q4 sales, Lumia WP8 devices still sold 1.9+1.1= 3 million devices.

Also, Lumia 920 sold in USA = 1.9*0.3= 0.57 miliion


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