Nokia China has reportedly celebrated 2 million Lumia WP8 activations in China, which has been achieved till 5th March 2013. For your information Lumia 920 and 820 pre-orders began on 11th Decemeber. On-contract booking for Lumia 920T by China Mobile began on 3rd of January only. Lumia 620 went on booking around 7th January only. So, most of these 2 million activations should belong to Q1 2013 only !!
As expected, it could have been achieved faster, if Lumia 920 and Lumia 920T supplies had been better. But, still it shows that Q1 2013 is really going to be stronger than Q4 2012 as most of these two million sold devices have been sold and shipped starting January only, especially Lumia 920T and Lumia 620. Even Lumia 920 and 820 were on sales for hardly 20 days in Q4 2012
Also still March is left and Lumia 920, Lumia 920T and Lumia 820 are topping the charts across many retailers.
Thanks kalis for the Tip.
Pingback: read Nokia Lumia WP8: prossimi al traguardo dei 2 milioni di unità in Cina postme
Pingback: NyttOmNokia.com - Nokia säljer 2 miljoner Lumi i Kina – Eller inte….
Freddie……..I like what you have done, but there is another factor that modifies what you have done and that is the difference between “shipped” and “sold to end users”. The article references activations and Nokia reports shipped in their financials.
I did similar analysis with adduxplex data and came up with a conservative 1st quarter projection for Nokia of 7.1 million shipped. This could increase with the launch of some of the lower end Lumia’s, but right now that is the current trend. The key factor I used with the with adduplex data is that Nokia shipped 13.4million Lumia in 2012, which then gives 18million Windows Phones from all manufactures shipped in 2012. I believe there were also ~2million windows phones in 2011…..so now you have 28million – 2million – 18million = 8million shipped in 2013. Which at 73% of total windows phone sales gives Nokia about 6 million of the phones shipped…..buy maybe only 5 million of those activiated.
1st quarter should be some nice growth for Nokia, but not a huge increase in sales
Either great sales of Nokia Q1 or to high figures form China!!
…..My estimations:
China stands for 8 % of sold Windows Phone devices (source: http://nokiapoweruser.com/2013/03/04/we-got-it-right-italian-is-the-2nd-most-used-windows-phone-language-adduplex-teases-with-top-10-wp-language-chart/)
The sales of WP7 devices in China was very slow, so say these 2 million WP8 devices represents 7 % of the total Windows Phone market. 2.000.000/0.07 = 28.500.000 million WP handsets
WP8 share of the total number of device is hard to estimate. In february aprox. 25% of WP used was WP8 (source http://blog.adduplex.com/2013/02/windows-phone-device-stats-for-february.html). Estimating the growth from January to February (19% to 25%) and Nokia and HTC ramping up their production, a resonable and modest estimation would be around 31-40% WP8 which means 8.835.000-11.400.000 pcs
With Nokia standing for 73% of total WP device usage (source http://blog.adduplex.com/), Nokias share would be 6.440.000-8.322.000. With Nokia selling 4.400.000 Q4 2012 (souce http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57563229-94/surprise-surprise-nokias-q4-rides-high-on-lumia-sales/) and asuming that sales of Lumia WP7 device Q4 was about the same as Q3, which was 2.9000.000(souce http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2012Q3e.pdf) means about 3.540.000-5.420.000 so far in Q1 2013. Whe Nokia ramping up a new low-cost device I believe Nokia will reach 6.200.000 – 9.500.000 Q1 2013.
Another estimation can be done this way:
China stands for 8 % of WP sales. Let say 7 % is WP8. 2.000.000/0.07=28.500.000 in total sales
Nokias devices have a world wide market share of: 920 11%, 820 6%, 822 3%, 620 2% which gives 0.22*28.500.000=6.280.000 devices sold in total. Estimating that Nokia sold 1.500.000 Lumia 8 device in Q4 2012, gives us a figue of 4.780.000 WP8 sold so far in 2013, which is in the mittle of the intervall in the former estimation. With still strong Wp7 sales in some country I think it is safe to say, that either the figures from China are to high, or that Q1 will be a great quater for Nokia!
Nokia is going down!
Pingback: Nokia Lumia WP8: vicini ai 2 milioni di unità in Cina
Go Nokia!